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Millions of Americans collectively owe hundreds of billions of dollars in student loans. Repayment is difficult for many. In his 2020 campaign, President Joe Biden promised to cancel some federal student loans. Halfway into his term, he has not done so.
The 2022 election looms, Biden’s polled popularity is low and cancelation would be highly popular with his Democratic “base.” There are increasing calls for him to act. Should he act and how?
If you polled economists across the political spectrum, most would say no — that fundamentally, canceling student debt is bad economic policy.
Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke, a life-long Republican driven away by Donald Trump, commented on this briefly in a recent New York Times interview. He emphasized that many borrowers with high debt levels also have high earnings. He also noted that an after-the-fact change of rules like this would penalize those who scrimped and saved to pay off their loans.
That is all true, but things are more complicated.
Loan forgiveness advocates point out that Blacks, Hispanics and other minorities bear a disproportionate burden. Many were first-generation college students, many socially-disadvantaged and with poor preparation. Across all races and social classes, many hard-pressed borrowers are people who, for whatever reasons, did not complete their degrees and must pay for higher ed without the earnings benefits of a degree. All of this also is true.
I’d join most other economists in the view that, taken in isolation, blanket forgiveness would represent bad economics on both criteria of fairness and economic efficiency.
However, one should never consider issues like this in total isolation. On the issue of student debt one must reflect on key related questions:
How did we come to this unprecedented situation in which a particular category of debt affects so many to such a degree?
How have overall public policies treated the age cohorts owing this debt, mostly children and grandchildren of baby boomers?
How would the “bailout” of debt cancelation compare in size, fairness and economic efficiency to other bailouts in recent history?
The answer to the first question is that over the past half-century we reduced the state- and federal-government subsidized portion of the cost of post-secondary education. And at the same time we implemented policies that inadvertently motivated higher costs at colleges and universities.
I have a personal memento illustrating the first — my 1971 fee statement from the U. Back from Vietnam in September 1970, I started as a freshman at the University of Minnesota in winter quarter, 1971. My fee statement shows a total of $122 I paid for the tuition for 18 credits of classes, plus health care and other services. That was less than one month of either my G.I. Bill benefits or the Social Security check I got as an unmarried survivor under age 22. I paid for books. The state picked up all the other costs of undergraduate education at state post-secondary institutions.
Back then it was still a three-quarter system. Updating my costs with the rate of consumer inflation, for a full year I was paying $2,606. At that time, Minnesota’s costs were typical for other states.
For people not eligible for my benefits, there were federal grants and loans. Costs were higher at private colleges and so was aid.
Over the next 20 years, things changed. State governments picked up smaller and smaller fractions of undergraduate education at their colleges. Overall operating costs at public and private schools began a seemingly inexorable rise, far outpacing increases in the general price level. Federal grant funding rose slower than tuition. Federal aid shifted primarily to direct or government-guaranteed loans. And the income premium rewarding four-year degrees at first widened, benefitting most baby boomers, but then narrowed in the new millennium, hurting their children and grandchildren.
The upshot is that the baby boomers like me enjoyed a golden age for attending college, more favorable in terms of access and financing than any cohort before or since, and more favorable earnings potential upon graduation. Younger people now are right on when complaining that baby boomers scrambled up myriad government lifelines extended to them — and then pulled up the lines after them, leaving the next generation drowning in debt.
Then consider the many cases in which government action transfers large sums from the Treasury to some group without regard either to fairness or economic efficiency. In the 1930s, when a third of the nation’s households lived on farms, federal farm payments reduced poverty. That had tapered off by the late 1960s, but the programs lived on. Farmers are a small minority of the population and the reduced number who crank out over 80 percent of total farm output are even fewer.
Critics of student debt erasure by presidential fiat correctly call it an end run around the constitutional requirement that no Treasury funds be paid out without both authorization and appropriation bills passed by Congress. But they make this argument selectively.
Consider that Trump was able to pay out some $18 billion to buy off farmers to not protest his trade war with China by using an obscure USDA slush fund that Congress will always top up later when attention is diverted elsewhere.
Consider the ghastly spectacle of the Treasury and Fed contortions to keep large financial institutions from going broke after 2007, all the while ignoring vulture funds, like that of later Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, encouraging ordinary homeowners to spend the equity in their homes, and then foreclosing.
And consider the intergeneration injustices embodied in federal government borrow-and-spend policies since the inauguration of Ronald Reagan in 1981 and accelerated by the George W. Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003.
Medicare is yet another feature of a complex of imprudence and injustice. Outlays in 2022 are over $800 billion. The actuarial value of what current beneficiaries have paid in is estimated at less than $300 billion. The rest is being paid, now and in the future, by the children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren of the baby boomers who did not see an increase in FICA rates for Medicare since 1987, while the fraction of U.S. output going for medical care more than doubled to near 20 percent.
The economic inefficiencies and injustices of budget deficits and current funding of Social Security and Medicare need many columns to explore thoroughly. Suffice it to say that baby boomers living in glass mansions should not hurl stones at their offspring.
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St. Paul economist and writer Edward Lotterman can be reached at [email protected]
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Tainted: June 3, between 8 a.m. and 8:30 a.m. at Johnson Parkway and Sixth Street. The male driver in a black pickup didn’t yield to me and crossed into the bike path where I fell under the bike to avoid hitting your truck. All you did was sit in the truck and say you’re sorry. You left as soon as I got off the street. Half of my summer is gone because of this.
Tainted: Whoever designed this bike path. Hardly anyone stops at the stop sign. Just stop at the corner. Many close calls to me and I’ve told all to stop. Maybe put a yield sign or stop signs on the west side of Johnson. They don’t know how to yield.
Sainted: To the one driver who asked if I was OK. Much appreciated. Felt fine at the time but did break my elbow.
I think It would be desirable if those responsible for the St. Paul skyway system could maintain uniform hours for the operation of the system.
They have posted operating hours indicating a close of 11 p.m., but this is contradicted by one posting indicating a 12 p.m. closing. The reality is that neither apply as I discovered this past Saturday when returning to my apartment from a downtown restaurant.
The location in the general vicinity (east) of the Subway operation was closed at 10 p.m. This is not the first time this has happened to me. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect uniform operating hours to be observed.
Roger A. Godin, St. Paul
An incredible Sainted to Lakeview Hospital in Stillwater. I had surgery this past Tuesday and had never been there before. The care I received was phenomenal. The staff was incredible and compassionate.
I was on the first floor and it was like a party when they came in for vitals, etc. Kelly always referred me to as The Boss. Thank you for such kindness and for helping me through such a painful surgery. And an even bigger shout out to my personal paramedics Shawna S. and Mary F. Thank you both so much for everything. I’d be lost without you.
Letters: Merge law enforcement, social welfare and public education under one roof
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Letters: Baby formula shortage? Don’t fall for pre-fab critiques.
Sainted & Tainted: Our day at the beach was saved!
Letters: The value of healthy, responsible skepticism
Q: Ira, we’ve been burned by Kevin Durant before. We can’t be fooled into fool’s gold again. – Ian.
A: Look, this whole Brooklyn Nets-will-implode storyline is so bizarre, so speculative, so seemingly preposterous that perspective needs to be toned down all around on the possibilities of both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant departing. But to your question, this also is an opportunity to address the notion of the Heat being “burned” when coming up short in free agency, including when Pat Riley and Micky Arison traveled to the Hamptons in an attempt to woo Kevin Durant during 2016 free agency. It was the same narrative when the Heat “came up short” with Gordon Hayward (and even to a degree the supposed previous “failure” to nab Kyrie). Being mentioned in such speculation means your franchise has earned the respect of players and agents. That is a good thing. The Heat get into the room (unless it’s LeBron’s Las Vegas suite). And if Kevin Durant does attempt to work his way elsewhere, they likely will be back in the room.
Q: Nikola Jovic seems a bit slow footed when I watch his clips. I’d like to see him get serious playing time in Sioux Falls, so he can adjust to the NBA speed. – James.
A: But I’m not sure the G League game, which can be helter skelter at times, is the preferred tempo, either. This could be more along the lines of Omer Yurtseven’s rookie season with the Heat, where it will be mostly developmental, with some as-needed time as warranted/merited. Remember, Nikola Jovic will become the youngest Heat player ever to appear in a game in the franchise’s 35 seasons. That has to be about patience, for more than just foot speed.
Q: Ira, you listed players the Heat passed on to get Nikola Jovic. Who would you have preferred? – Anthony.
A: So basically you’re asking me to trump my preference in the moment at the 2020 draft for Desmond Bane? I’m not sure there is anyone in that category this year. But of those selected after Nikola Jovic (who I think can turn into an inspired choice), I do believe that Patrick Baldwin’s skillset could still yield something special and was curious about E.J. Liddell as a Heat fit. But I don’t believe there is a reason for second guessing when you’re talking about No. 27.
Presented the choice between the two highlight defensive plays he made Thursday night — a fourth-inning throw to the plate to prevent a run and his rally-killing diving catch across the right field line in the eighth — Orioles right fielder Austin Hays made his decision based on sound logic.
“I’d probably say the throw because the dive hurt a lot worse,” Hays said with a smile. “It was totally worth it because I caught it. But I’d like to not have to dive on the warning track ever again.”
But speaking as an observer, center fielder Cedric Mullins went the other way.
“The throw, for him, was pretty easy,” Mullins said. “That [dive] definitely crushed some spirits out there.”
The difference of opinion is perhaps one of the few ways Hays and Mullins aren’t in sync when it comes to outfield defense. Having played together since 2017 as minor leaguers, the pair has developed an innate ability to communicate with each other before and during plays.
Thursday, along with Hays’ highlights, Mullins ranged into right-center field for a handful of impressive catches, with Hays also finishing in the vicinity. Add in a well-tracked catch in left from Anthony Santander, and the result is what manager Brandon Hyde said “might have been the best defensive game from an outfield group that I’ve seen in the big leagues.”
“It’s two Gold Glovers,” Hyde said. “You see them doing a lot of nonverbal [communication] while they’re running to the ball. They know each other so well now. When you play next to a guy, you know their mannerisms, you know what balls they can get to and what they can’t, where they’re playing, so there’s some comfort.”
Mullins said with a wave of his hand, he can let Hays know what areas he has covered based on positioning. Both noted that if a ball is hit between them and one can catch it with a dive, it usually means the other can get to it standing up. That cue helps them avoid collisions, with one moving up to make the catch while the other veers deeper into the outfield as backup.
“It’s a really big peace of mind for an outfielder to know that the other guy is always going to be there,” Hays said. “I think we’ve built a lot of trust with one another.”
Hays said that trust is a byproduct of years of games alongside each other, with those instincts becoming second nature “once those plays happen over and over and over and over again.”
That aggregate time together means they have both seen the other blossom into standout defenders in their own way. Hays praised Mullins’ jumps, routes and speed. Mullins is in the 72nd percentile in the majors in outfield jump, 84th percentile in sprint speed, and 91st percentile in outs above average, according to Baseball Savant.
“He’s as good as they come for center fielders,” Hays said.
His favorite play by Mullins happened last year, when the All-Star slid on the warning track in right-center field at Camden Yards to rob Nelson Cruz of extra bases. With experience playing center field in Baltimore, Hays knows the challenge of that play.
“That’s one of the most difficult plays for a center fielder, when you’re running wide open,” he said. “That gap gets small right there before it jets out to where it’s 373 [feet]. I think that’s probably the most impressive one I’ve seen him make. He robbed Gary [Sánchez of a home run] last year, but I still think that the one where he slid on the track up against the wall, that’s just such a difficult play.”
Mullins said picking one of Hays’ best plays is a tough task because “the list keeps piling up.” He settled on the highlight that impressed him most recently: After Mullins lunged at a ball as it caromed off the new left field wall at Camden Yards, Hays chased it down and threw out Jesse Winker at third base as the Seattle Mariners outfielder tried to stretch the hit into a triple.
It’s one of Hays’ six outfield assists, which entered Friday as the second most in the American League and highlighted the arm that most impresses Mullins about Hays’ defensive acumen. Since 2016, Hays is responsible for the Orioles’ five hardest-thrown outfield assists, with the top three coming this year.
“He came behind me, picked it up, threw him out at third while I was just kind of my knees watching because at that point, I’m like, ‘It’s all you, man,’” Mullins said.
Hays’ favorite among Mullins’ plays came June 1, 2021. Mullins’ preference among Hays’ highlights was June 2, 2022. It’s just another example of them in lockstep, working in tandem to secure outs for the Orioles’ pitching staff.
“We just have a lot of faith knowing that everything’s gonna get caught,” Hays said. “If there’s something I feel like is out of reach for me, he’s gonna catch it.”
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